Vote – Brian's Spain Domain

The Catalan Chronicles: Who had that brilliant idea?

Back in February, 1981, as I was whiling away my youth watching reruns of the Odd Couple, during a special session of the Spanish parliament in which Leopoldo Calvo Sotelo was expected to be sworn in as interim prime minister, a colonel from Spain’s paramilitary force, the once feared Guardia Civil, literally marched into the chamber and ordered everyone to hit the deck. When the members of parliament, in their stupor, were slow to react, he fired several shots into the ceiling to speed things up. It worked.

Amidst the growing concern that Spain’s young democracy was spiraling out of control (a belief brought about, in part, by the increasing demands for independence by nationalist groups in Catalonia, the Basque Country and Galicia), the Spanish political right, spearheaded by old Francoists and some of the armed forces, reverted to doing what it liked to do when it felt its country’s values and traditions were at risk: it tried to overthrow a legitimate government by means of force. I figure they thought it had worked for them in 1936, so why not give it another go.

It boggles the mind to think that, at a time when virginy Lady Di was preparing for her future wedding with Prince Charles, there was actually a Western European country that found itself embroiled in something you’d think only happened in certain developing nations. But, as they say here, Spain is different. This event was the Kennedy-assassination moment for Spaniards. The 9/11 for more recent generations. Everyone who was aware back then can recall just exactly where they were when it happened. Since the voting was being broadcast live on TV, much of that “everyone” was sitting in their living rooms watching in horror. Tanks were rolling through the streets of Valencia. Gunshots had been fired. There was real fear that Spain would be thrown into another civil war.

The coup attempt did not last long, thank God, since it was a failure. King Juan Carlos I, in his finest hour for sure as head of state, ordered the insurgents to obey him as their commander-in-chief and give themselves up. The constitution was the only way to go. Democracy was saved. Morevover, much of the expected support for the uprising had failed to materialize anyway, so after twenty-four very tense hours, the crisis had come to end.

Now, none of these scenarios were really being shuffled on October 1, but their effects on the memories of the Spanish, in addition to the years of Franco oppression, were long-lasting. And let’s not forget that Rajoy’s own party, the PP, had been founded by former member of the Generalisimo’s regime. Let’s also get something straight. The PP is not a far right, fascist party, as some would have the world think. It would generally be considered center-right by today’s standards. But its image is another matter. I mention these points because they still have an effect on Spanish psyche, and they would also be mentioned in the following days by some members of the international press. And that made it very obvious that it had to tread very carefully when dealing with the Catalan situation. Any show of force would be magnified manifold. Everyone seemed to understand that except, it seems, for the PP.

The Rajoy administration had guaranteed there would be no referendum. It just wasn’t going to happen. That may be fine and dandy, but just how it planned on preventing people from heading out to the polls was the million euro question. Especially in today’s high tech world, where just about nothing is preventable. But that doesn’t mean they didn’t try.

The authorities chased down all attempts to set up a vote, some more effective than others, but overall, the end result was that the world was witnessing a government try to keep its own people from holding a democratic process. Oops. That didn’t look good. And no matter how hard the government tried to get the message out that it was merely defending the constitution, that’s not how it looked. Lincoln was doing the same in 1861, but with a noticeable difference. The South was trying to defend its right to self-determination based on its belief it could continue with legalized human bondage…and that was a hard sell for the international community, even back then.

On top of that, the national government simply did not possess the means or manpower to see its plan through. Anything short of a military occupation was going to be insufficient, and that was not an option. Part of this problem of understaffing was due to the fact that the Catalan regional police force, the mossos d’esquadra, could not be relied on as their allegiance was under serious question. Ensuing events would prove these suspicions right.

And there was one more downside to the government’s verve to shut down the vote: rather predictably, it only produced an even greater desire to challenge authority. It’s pretty basic psychology.

Anyway, October 1 came, and I whipped up some pancakes, made myself some good coffee and sat down in front of the TV to watch Spain fall apart before my very eyes. It was a dark and rainy morning, but by eight o’clock, there were mile-long queues lining up outside of schools around the region, formed by thousands of Catalans willing to defy the government.

The law enforcement personnel went into action by trying to break through human barriers, many formed by families of the schools where the polls were, as well as other committed pro-independence supporters. The results were predictable. The police, all decked out in their imposing riot gear, took to trying to ram through the walls or just peel people away. There was plenty of shoving, tugging and shouting. On occasion, they employed their truncheons far too vigorously.

“So,” I thought to myself as I watch the story unfold before me, “who the hell came up with that brilliant idea?”

The phantoms of the past were running rampant through the streets of Barcelona.

The Catalan Chronicles: The Guns of September

The Catalan government gave everyone just about three weeks to ready themselves for the referendum, so within hours of the passing of the independence law, everyone dropped their plates of paella and raced to position themselves for the great clash. I had just gotten back from Portugal and was trying to get a handle on just what the hell was going on. I mean, this was Spain, for Christ’s sake…the independence movements were supposed to be talked about…not really acted upon.

Deep down, however, I knew this was a run-in which had been a long time in the coming. I had students from the 1990s swearing on the Bible that Spain would not collapse into another Yugoslavia Reboot, but they didn’t know what I did. They hadn’t seen the James Joyce ads in the Herald Tribune. They hadn’t detected the tunnel being dug beneath the castle walls. The Spanish also failed, it seems, to understand that all those years of pacting with nationalist parties just to have control over parliament was going to land them with a hefty bill. After decades of wrestling over issues, compromising, conceding and rescinding, bickering back and forth, it seemed, though, that this time there would be no negotiating.

Prime Minister Rajoy chose a route that was fairly clever, even for Rajoy, and on paper it made sense. He let the judicial branch dictate his policy for him. All he had to do was execute the court orders. This meant that it wouldn’t be his conservative Popular Party depriving the Catalonians of their desire to vote. He would be obeying a higher law known as the constitution. No one could accuse him of acting unilaterally.

He also managed to get his party’s historic rivals, the Socialist Party, PSOE, and a young and good-looking center-right party, Ciudadanos, to join in alliance. It was almost unprecendeted. But then again, so was the situation in Spain’s young democracy. The other major national party, the rehashed left wingers called Podemos, shied from the union. You see, its leader Pablo Iglesias hates Rajoy so much, that he just couldn’t bring himself to supporting the country’s head of state for the betterment of nation. Iglesias was also within a whisker of overtaking the Socialist Party as the country’s main left wing force. The implosion of his country seemed, puzzlingly, like the ideal moment to go for the winning touchdown. Instead, he shot himself in the foot.

Iglesias was a proponent of the referendum, which is legitimate enough. He just forgot that he was backing a group of politicians which had basically just flushed democracy and the law down the toilet, and wiped their butts with the constitution. Iglesias also failed to recall that his own party represented much of the rest of Spain and not just Catalan interests. So, when at a political rally, he stood over the podium in his characteristic haunch, raised his right fist and shouted “Visca Catalunya!”, or “Long live Catalonia!” in Catalan, it goes down as one of the most boneheaded acts in recent Spanish history. It’s not just me. His own constituents made him aware of this screw-up, as support for his party fled like rats on a sinking ship.

Puigdemont and company were playing the “poor little us” routine, seeking international sympathy for their cause. And they were adept at it. Afterall, if you know nothing about the issue, as was the case for most people, you think to yourself, “Of course, they have that right to decide for themselves. Those bad old Spaniards!” And for much of the 20th Century, they weren’t the nicest guys in town. Forty years of ultra-conservative dictatorship under the Franco regime had made their mark. That may seem like a long time to many, but consider this: one of the most heated debates in the United States this year had to do with what to do with the old Confederate Civil War statues that stood in many cities. It’s a conflict that came to an end, at least on a military level, over 150 years ago.

Defending democracy and the right to hold a referendum was the separatists’ strongest argument, and the Spanish government’s weakest. Ironically, defending democracy and the duty to uphold the constitution was one of the national government’s best points. All the same, the separatists went for the jugular with their rhetoric. They threw in “Franco” here and there, “fascism” when they could, and “oppression” quite often. All the familiar ghosts from the past.

In the final couple of days leading up to the referendum, you got the feeling the Rajoy administration was doing everything in its power to ensure that the world had that very negative image of Spain. It was persecuting councilmen, jailing leaders for sedition, threatening with taking legal action against mayors who disobeyed court orders, tracking down and confiscating ballots from warehouses, roping off professional printing centers, shutting down websites, demanding Google remove sites which provided information on polling districts. At the same time, it was trying to pursuade the international community that the referendum meant nothing. It sure didn’t look that way.

Then October 1 came.

The Catalan Chronicles: The R Word

One of the emotionally charged issues regarding the Catalonian independence movement is the famous referendum, or R word, as I call it, because it’s probably the debate that irritates both ends more than any. It’s the event that has contributed to both sides ramming head on into each other. It’s also where you have to deal with the most absurd argument of this argument and probably the most childish behavior.

First of all, let me make it clear that I have always been in favor of a referendum for a couple of reasons, not the least being that people should and do have a right to decide what they want to be. A chance to determine their own future, so to speak. Especially if enough of them want it to happen. It’s as universal a right as you can get. I also feel that not allowing a referendum has been one of the Spanish government’s weakest links in its defence of unity. It makes it look inflexible and authoritarian (not a good thing as we still live in the wake of the Franco era), foolishly democratically unfriendly, especially when comparisons are made with Scotland and Quebec (though I’d like to see Vermont try to hold a referendum and see what the federal government would say), and finally, it was just a plain marketing blunder on their part. You can say what you want about the Catalans, but they always have to referendum on their side.

In my humble opinion, Spain had a golden opportunity a few years ago. They could have allowed a referendum, assisted in its process and handling, ensured it was done correctly and, barring some catastrophe, won by a sizable margin, because, let’s face it, the numbers weren’t there for the secessionists. Not by a long shot. And then the Spanish government could have always shown the world, “hey, they had their chance.” But that’s neither here nor there. They didn’t. Why?

1. First of all, because the constitution does not contemplate this eventuality. Once you’re in, you’re in for good. Honest Abe Lincoln certainly would have seconded that, and the Spanish government certainly does too.

2. There is nagging worry that if the central government allowed the separatist Catalans to have a stab at self-determination, they would in some ways being granting legitimacy to their cause, which in many ways would undermine the previously mentioned belief that independence is not an option. So why let them vote on it? There is some logic to this argument, which is a rarity in this story.

3. Even if they did allow a plebiscite to take place and a predictable NO vote against independence was to take the day, chances are the separatists would fight on. In other words, the referendum would only be valid when the desired result was finally obtained. That sort of makes sense because independence supporters have a record of behaving in such a way.

4. They argue that over the past forty years, Catalonia has held plenty of regional elections which in their own way give the Catalans a right to express their feelings.

5. They didn’t feel like it.

Some hardcore Spaniards advocate a referendum but insist that all of Spain have a say in the matter, which is utter balderdash, as the results would be a foregone conclusion and the real subjects involved would be totally overlooked. A mental masturbation by ultra-conservative unionists envisions the rest of the country voting to actually oust the region from Spain. Now wouldn’t that be funny. Catalonia would probably stay in if only to defy the will of Spain!!!

Regardless, whether the central government liked it or not, time finally came for a referendum. The year was 2014, and the president of the region, Artur Mas, had decided that Catalonia needed to decide its own future, for a whole bunch of reasons. These included growing frustration with the way the goverment was handling the economic recession, and another had to do with the Constitutional Court, at the behest of the PP, repealed or retouched 13 articles from the newly signed agreement from 2006. This supposedly infuriated the Catalans, though the remaining 215 articles were apparently left alone.

As usual, the national government opposed the idea, the national parliament rejected it by a landslide and the courts outright banned it? But the Catalans went ahead with it anyway, passing laws that made their aims possible and thus sidestepping protocol. There has been a consistency with this. If playing by the rules doesn’t get you what you want…just change the rules. The vote was no longer a referendum but rather a legally vague term known as a Consulta. This sort of semantic fooling around has run rampant on both ends.

Mas also made a few astute adjustments regarding just who could vote. Three new groups were added: legal residents from foreign countries, minors who were 16 and 17, and just about any voter from abroad who ever spent a day in Catalonia. There were unquestionable benefits to their inclusion. The foreigners living in Catalonia would be less likely to feel allegiance to Spain as a whole and prone to identifying with the interests of the region; the teenagers were from a generation of Catalan youth heavily influenced by years of schooling where anti-Spain sentiment was widespread; and clearly anyone who wanted to send a message from abroad, it was apt to be the kind of individual who adopted a kind of nostalgia for the motherland or fatherland or homeland, what have you. Few examiners have picked up on these details, but I can assure you, they were important.

The vote took place in many schools and was financed in part with public money, even though it had been declared illegal. It was held on November 9, and this time the police didn’t decide to bash heads, thank God. The day transpired without an incident. To date, it was as close to a true plebiscite on self-determination as they have ever come.

The next day, the Generalitat (Catalonia’s government) announced that a whopping 81% had voted in favor of independence. It was an overwhelming majority. A landslide. Mas jumped all over the results and claimed it was a rousing success, which of course, it wasn’t. Here’s why. The finagling of participation eligibility meant no one really knew just how many people could potentially vote. But one was for sure, it was a lot more than usual. The number of final voters hovered around the 2.3 million mark, and that, while no small figure, constitutes about 37% of the voting population (according to the most serious estimates). 81% of that percentage means that in reality, only about 30% voted in favor of breaking away. That’s right, 30%.

Some may argue that participation was low because the consultation was rendered illegal, but let’s face it, when people want to be defiant, those matters are of little importance. If larger numbers had wanted to flock to the polls, they could have. But they chose not to. All the same, the separatists were sharp about getting that 81% number out there, and it’s still referred to in international stories on the subject. Mas had managed to turn what I considered to be semi-flop into a great achievement. It would not be the first time or the last.

The central government completely misread the situation and wasted a golden opportunity. They dismissed the vote as illegal and inconsequential. It had no validity, so who cared? Well, a lot of people did. Afterall, 2.3 million voters is nothing to turn your nose up at. Mas didn’t have a lot to work with, but he had enough to make noise. Plus, it seemed pretty much clear as day that, were a formal referendum to be held, the no vote was a shoe in. The unionists had it in the bag. And once they had held one, no one, absolutely no one could say Catalonia was never given its chance.

So instead of capitalizing on the situation, the national government did what irresponsible people do when they are in debt and get a bill in the mail. They turned on the TV really loud, watched endless episodes of Pawn Stars, and pretended it didn’t exist. It just never happened. This total lack of regard for the Catalan independence movement, this foolish hope that it would just go away by itself, was a whole lot of wishful thinking. Why? Plus, it was a little late for that.

The Consulta

Well, it’s come and gone, and I can’t quite say where it’ll go from here. It seems like little was settled, as both sides will not budge when it comes to admitting victory or defeat. If anything, it’ll go on…and on…and on.

Yesterday, Sunday, November 9, the Catalonians held a straw poll, which is a kind of makeshift unofficial referendum on whether or not the majority from the region wants to become independent, as the minority from the region have so arduously desired. It was an act of defiance since the national government and the judicial branch had previously struck down Catalonia’s request to call on the will of the people to determine its future. The hope to become a sovereign nation has been alive for decades, and the roots go back centuries, not unlike Scotland’s dilemma, but it has come on stronger over the past decade for reasons not easily summarized in so few lines. Now those wanting to break away feel they have the right numbers to put it to the people, but Madrid keeps saying, “Uh, I don’t see this referendum thing happening.”

While it’s understandable that the national government should want to put off the inevitable, the problem is it only aggravates the issue and it doesn’t make Spain look very good. The United Kingdom established a peaceful and orderly referendum with the Scots, as did Canada with Quebec, to nationalist movements which failed, by the way. Why can’t Spain do the same.

So the pro-independence groups organized its now famous “consulta” and beckoned Catalans from home and abroad to put in their two cents. The answers were short and sweet: “Yes” or “No”. They did so in the name of democracy, calling it a show of civil disobedience for a just cause. They even alluded to Martin Luther King Jr. The national government called it a sham.

Finally the numbers came in, with some 2,300,000 voters showing up at the polls, with about 80% demanding independence. The international press has embraced these numbers as indicative of Catalonia’s overwhelming support for the initiative, but the stats belie reality. The numbers that showed up only constituted about 35% of all potential voters, and if you remove the nay-sayers, then the independentistas only managed to muster up about 28% of the vote.

If you take into account that the straw poll was promoted heavily by the Catalonian independence movement and it was supposed to their chance to corner the Madrid government into giving up more control to them, in my humble opinion, it didn’t do a very good job. About two-thirds of the voters clearly didn’t see the necessity to cast a vote, and would have expected a higher turnout from those citizens if they were so adament about seeing secession through. In short, from what I can tell, the numbers are there. I think they are higher then 28%, but probably still a far cry from the needed 51%.

If the Spanish government had any skill with this issue, they would hold a real referendum as soon as possible, while they apparently have the vote on their side. But I don’t see that happening either.

Oh well. Time to start the week.